Oakland City Council District 3 Race Three-Way Tie; Amy Lemley Leads D1

The Oakland City Council District Three Race is a not one, not two, but three – a three-way tie according to a new poll released today. Meanwhile, Amy Lemley is the clear leader in the District One Race to fill the seat currently held by Oakland Councilmember Jane Brunner, who’s running for Oakland City Attorney.

A Poll On Backyard Slaughter

The poll was conducted by Neighbors Opposed to Backyard Slaughter (NOBS), and done primarily to gauge how Oakland residents in District One and District Three feel about “the breeding, keeping, and slaughtering of animals in backyards,” according to the media release, which reports:

Residents and Districts one & three were contacted during the first week of September by phone and asked to answer two questions via their keypad. The first question asked their opinion about breeding, keeping, and slaughtering animals in their backyards for consumption, while the second question asked for their first choice to represent them on the Oakland City Council. A total of 871 individuals took the poll in District one. A total of 563 individuals took the poll in District three.

And it’s significant in size: 1,434 Oaklanders were surveyed – 871 in District One; 563 in District Three. That makes it a poll as large as many national polls, and thus it’s accuracy is much greater.

But while the pollsters were at it, they figured ‘Ah, let’s see how those Oakland City Council races are coming.’ What they found was interesting, but not surprising to this blogger in the case of the Oakland City Council District Three Race, and somewhat surprising in the Oakland City Council District One Race.

In the Oakland City Council District Three Race, the poll reports a dramatic four-way tie between Alex Miller-Cole, Nyeisha DeWitt, Lynette Gibson-McElhaney, and Sean Sullivan. Moreover, the poll explains that 65 percent of the residents surveyed are totally undecided.

That 65 percent of Oaklanders in District Three are undecided comes as no surprise to this vlogger. The majority of people who live in the area have said they just don’t know who’s running, but they do know who the Mayor Of Oakland is, and don’t have a good opinion of her – and that’s connected to the Occupy Oakland fiasco.

The detailed first choice voting break down looks like this and expressed in alphabetical order with the actual total number of voters who responded as first choice, followed by the percentage: Alex Miller-Cole, 37, 7 percent; Nyeisha Dewitt, 42, 7 percent; Lynette Gibson-McElhaney, 31, 6 percent; Derrick Muhammad, 25, 4 percent; Sean Sullivan, 37, 7 percent, Larry Lionel Young, Jr., 23, 4 percent; Undecided, 368, 65 percent.

What’s most interesting about the results is not just that there are so many undecided people , but after all of the debates that have been held, and the money raised by some of the candidates, most notably Sean Sullivan and Alex Miller-Cole. Not only is there a three-way tie, but Lynette Gibson-McElhaney is just a point behind, and Mr. Muhammad and Mr. Young are just two points behind.

This means Sullivan and Miller-Cole have the money, but aren’t connecting with voters in any way as to emerge as the clear front runners. It also means that Lynette Gibson-McElhaney, Mr. Muhammad and Young, who ran for Mayor in 2010, could become the winners in this race.

Now, lets’ look at the Oakland City Council District One Race.

Here, Amy Lemley, who has the backing of Oakland City Councilpeople Libby Schaaf and Pat Kernighan, enjoys a clear lead with 108 first-choice backers or 12 percent of the total of 871 people – that’s about 1 of every 10 voters there. The total breakdown looks like this, again alphabetically: Craig Brandt, 31, 4 percent; Dan Kalb 51, 6 percent; Amy Lemley, 108, 12 percent; Gordon A. “Don” Link, 30, 3 percent, Donald L. Macleay, 9, 1 percent; Leonard Raphael, 12, 1 percent; Richard Raya, 20, 2 percent; Undecided, 610, 70 percent.

While this appears to be a clear lead, against Amy Lemley has the most to lose because she’s raised the most money. The difference for her is she’s got the active backing of Libby and Pat – and I do mean active in that they host fundraisers for her on a regular basis. In fact, I can remember only one time when one unknown candidate has had that much Oakland City Council incumbent support, and that was Libby.

In the next blog, we’ll look at that other part of the poll; the one about “the breeding, keeping, and slaughtering of animals in backyards.

Stay tuned.