A lot of buzz has been created by the mainstream media in reporting a rather questionable poll done by EPIC-MRA out of Lansing, Michigan and for The Detroit Free Press and TV stations WXYZ, WOOD and WJRT. The poll interviews just 600 “likely voters” out of over 7 million registered Michigan voters, and failed to show how the field of survey respondents was contacted – that’s a big red flag because it means the field is going to be mostly over 35, white and conservative.
The result was predictable: one GOP candidate, the front runner Mitt Romney, was ahead of President Barack Obama 46 percent to 41 percent, where Obama was ahead of Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain by 45 percent to 40 percent, and by 50 percent and 36 percent respectively.
So that means Mitt Romney can beat President Obama?
No.
This has the same look as a poll conducted in September of 2008, when Senator John McCain ran for President against Obama and with then-Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential pick.
That poll, done by Marketing Resource Group, also out of Lansing, also surveyed 600 “likely voters” and failed to explain how its survey method was done. It reported that McCain was ahead of Obama 46 percent to 43 percent.
If a person’s a “likely voter” it generally means they have a land-line phone, and don’t use just a cell phone for their communications. It also means that the pollster should explain what they mean by a likely voter, because everyone agrees its hard to determine just who that person is, and using methods like the one employed by Gallop tend to get people who are white and older.
The bottom line is voter turnout and youth. If there’s high turnout, that means mostly young people, and with that President Obama wins.
Most likely in a landslide.
Stay tuned.